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Robust energy-efficient train speed profile optimization in a scenario-based position–time–speed network

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第4期   页码 595-614 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0173-1

摘要： Train speed profile optimization is an efficient approach to reducing energy consumption in urban rail transit systems. Different from most existing studies that assume deterministic parameters as model inputs, this paper proposes a robust energy-efficient train speed profile optimization approach by considering the uncertainty of train modeling parameters. Specifically, we first construct a scenario-based position–time–speed (PTS) network by considering resistance parameters as discrete scenario-based random variables. Then, a percentile reliability model is proposed to generate a robust train speed profile, by which the scenario-based energy consumption is less than the model objective value at α confidence level. To solve the model efficiently, we present several algorithms to eliminate the infeasible nodes and arcs in the PTS network and propose a model reformulation strategy to transform the original model into an equivalent linear programming model. Lastly, on the basis of our field test data collected in Beijing metro Yizhuang line, a series of experiments are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the model and analyze the influences of parameter uncertainties on the generated train speed profile.

关键词： robust train speed profile     percentile reliability model     scenario-based position–time–speed network     mixed-integer programming    

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Managing obsolescence of embedded hardware and software in secure and trusted systems

Zachary A. COLLIER, James H. LAMBERT

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2020年 第7卷 第2期   页码 172-181 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0032-5

摘要： Obsolescence of integrated systems which contain hardware and software is a problem that affects multiple industries and can occur for many reasons, including technological, economic, organizational, and social factors. It is especially acute in products and systems that have long life cycles, where a high rate of technological innovation of the subcomponents result in a mismatch in life cycles between the components and the systems. While several approaches for obsolescence forecasting exist, they often require data that may not be available. This paper describes an approach using non-probabilistic scenarios coupled with decision analysis to investigate how particular scenarios influence priority setting for products and systems. Scenarios are generated from a list of emergent and future conditions related to obsolescence. The key result is an identification of the most and least disruptive scenarios to the decision maker’s priorities. An example is presented related to the selection of technologies for energy islanding, which demonstrates the methodology using six obsolescence scenarios. The paper should be of broad interest to scholars and practitioners engaged with enterprise risk management and similar challenges of large-scale systems.

关键词： enterprise risk management     diminishing manufacturing sources and material shortages     scenario-based preferences     systems engineering     deep uncertainty     product life cycle    

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Scenario-based assessment and multi-objective optimization of urban development plan with carrying capacity

Yilei Lu, Yunqing Huang, Siyu Zeng, Can Wang

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第14卷 第2期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-019-1200-x

摘要： Impact of urban development on water system is assessed with carrying capacity. Impacts on both water resource quantity and environmental quality are involved. Multi-objective optimization revealing system trade-off facilitate the regulation. Efficiency, scale and structure of urban development are regulated in two stages. A roadmap approaching more sustainable development is provided for the case city. Environmental impact assessments and subsequent regulation measures of urban development plans are critical to human progress toward sustainability, since these plans set the scale and structure targets of future socioeconomic development. A three-step methodology for assessing and optimizing an urban development plan focusing on its impacts on the water system was developed. The methodology first predicted the pressure on the water system caused by implementation of the plan under distinct scenarios, then compared the pressure with the carrying capacity threshold to verify the system status; finally, a multi-objective optimization method was used to propose regulation solutions. The methodology enabled evaluation of the water system carrying state, taking socioeconomic development uncertainties into account, and multiple sets of improvement measures under different decisionmaker preferences were generated. The methodology was applied in the case of Zhoushan city in South-east China. The assessment results showed that overloading problems occurred in 11 out of the 13 zones in Zhoushan, with the potential pressure varying from 1.1 to 18.3 times the carrying capacity. As a basic regulation measure, an environmental efficiency upgrade could relieve the overloading in 4 zones and reduce 9%‒63% of the pressure. The optimization of industrial development showed that the pressure could be controlled under the carrying capacity threshold if the planned scale was reduced by 24% and the industrial structure was transformed. Various regulation schemes including a more suitable scale and structure with necessary efficiency standards are provided for decisionmakers that can help the case city approach a more sustainable development pattern.

关键词： Urban development plan     Urban water system     Carrying capacity     Scenario analysis     Multi-objective optimization    

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基于情景构建的中国COVID-19相关基本临床医疗资源需求评估 Article

张婷, 王晴, 冷志伟, 杨媛, 杨津, 陈方媛, 贾萌萌, 张惺惺, 亓蔚然, 徐韵韶, 陈思雅, 戴佩希, 马礼兵, 冯录召, 杨维中

《工程（英文）》 2021年 第7卷 第7期   页码 948-957 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.03.020

摘要：

新冠病毒肺炎（COVID-19）大流行是全球性的公共危机。COVID-19疫情暴发后，感染病例和重症患者骤增，导致亟需救治的患者数量增加、医疗资源供不应求，许多国家的医疗系统不堪重负，甚至崩溃。本研究基于不同情景下的COVID-19疫情暴发和防控，旨在评估中国COVID-19疫情相关的基本临床医疗资源需求。本研究使用易感者-潜隐者-传染者-住院/隔离者-移除者（包括康复和死亡）（SEIHR）传播动力学仓储模型来估计感染者和住院/隔离患者的数量，以及所需的基本医疗资源。研究发现，在实施严格的非药物干预（NPI）措施或大规模人群接种疫苗的情景下，中国能够迅速控制社区传播和局部地区暴发的聚集性疫情。然而，在实施较低强度的NPI措施和通过疫苗接种获得免疫的人口比例较低的情景下，需要使用平疫转换模式来储备医疗资源和提高服务能力，以确保疫情发生时医疗卫生系统的正常运行。不同时期COVID-19疫苗的接种和NPI措施的实施会减缓疫情的传播，进而影响临床救治需求。在构建的情景中，无症状感染者比例的增加不会减少对医疗资源的需求，但会增大疫情防控的难度。本研究为全球抗击COVID-19疫情期间防控策略的调整提供了依据，为未来应对COVID-19疫情大流行的公共卫生应急准备提供借鉴，也为基本医疗资源储备和配置提供指导。

关键词： COVID-19     SEIHR动力学模型     临床医疗资源需求     疫苗接种    

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Current scenario and challenges of plastic pollution in Bangladesh: a focus on farmlands and terrestrial

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第6期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1666-4

摘要：

● A global snapshot of plastic waste generation and disposal is analysed.

关键词： Plastic waste     Farmlands     Terrestrial ecosystem     Marine life    

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Scenario analysis of the energy demand and CO

Jihong ZHANG, Jian ZHOU, Guangping HU, Tianhou ZHANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2010年 第4卷 第4期   页码 459-468 doi: 10.1007/s11708-010-0119-5

摘要： An assessment of the energy demand and the potential for sector-based emission reductions will provide necessary background information for policy makers. In this paper, Beijing was selected as a special case for analysis in order to assess the energy demand and potential of CO abatement in the urban transport system of China. A mathematical model was developed to generate three scenarios for the urban transport system of Beijing from 2010 to 2030. The best pattern was identified by comparing the three different scenarios and assessing their urban traffic patterns through cost information. Results show that in the high motorization-oriented pattern scenario, total energy demand is about 13.94% higher, and the average CO abatement per year is 3.38 million tons less than in the reference scenario. On the other hand, in the bus and rail transit-oriented scenario, total energy demand is about 11.57% less, and the average CO abatement is 2.8 million tons more than in the reference scenario. Thus, Beijing cannot and should not follow the American pattern of high motorization-oriented transport system but learn from the experience of developed cities of Europe and East Asia.

关键词： scenario analysis     urban traffic pattern     energy demand     reduction potential    

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Vanadium metabolism investigation using substance flow and scenario analysis

Fangfang ZHANG, Huiquan LI, Bo CHEN, Xue GUAN, Yi ZHANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第2期   页码 256-266 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0585-1

摘要： Vanadium is a vital strategic resource, and vanadium metabolism is an important part of the national socio-economic system of China. This study conducts accounting and scenario analysis on the life cycle of vanadium metabolism in China. Based on the characteristics of vanadium life cycle and substance flow analysis (SFA) framework, we present a quantitative evaluation of a static anthropogenic vanadium life cycle for the year 2010. Results show that anthropogenic vanadium consumption, stocks, and new domestic scrap are at 98.2, 21.2, and 4.1 kt, respectively; new scrap is usually discarded. The overall utilization ratio of vanadium is 32.2%. A large amount of vanadium is stockpiled into tailings, debris, slags, and other spent solids. A scenario analysis was conducted to analyze the future developmental trend of vanadium metabolism in China based on the SFA framework and the qualitative analysis of technology advancement and socio-economic development. The baseline year was set as 2010. Several indicators were proposed to simulate different scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The scenario analysis indicates that the next 20 years is a critical period for the vanadium industry in China. This paper discusses relevant policies that contribute to the improvement of sustainable vanadium utilization in China.

关键词： metabolism     vanadium industry     substance flow analysis     scenario analysis    

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SWMM-based methodology for block-scale LID-BMPs planning based on site-scale multi-objective optimization

Te Xu, Haifeng Jia, Zheng Wang, Xuhui Mao, Changqing Xu

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2017年 第11卷 第4期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-017-0934-6

摘要： Low impact development type of best management practices (LID-BMPs) aims to mitigate urban stormwater runoff and lessen pollutant loads in an economical and eco-friendly way and has become a global concern in modern urban stormwater management. A new methodology based on stormwater management model (SWMM) for block-scale LID-BMPs planning was developed. This method integrated LID-BMP chain layout optimization in site-scale parcels with scenario analysis in the entire block-scale urban area. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) was successfully coupled to SWMM through Python to complete the site-scale optimization process. Different LID scenarios of the research area were designed on the basis of the optimized LID-BMP chain layout. A multi-index evaluation that considered runoff quantity indices, pollutant loads, and construction costs simultaneously helped select the cost-effective scenario as the final planning scheme. A case study in Tianjin, China, was conducted to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Results showed that more than 75% control rate of total runoff volume, 22%–46% peak flow reduction efficiency, and more than 32% pollutant removal rate were achieved. The robustness analysis indicated that the selected final planning scheme was considerably robust with varied weight values.

关键词： Stormwater management     LID-BMPs planning     SWMM     LID-BMP chain     NSGA-II     Scenario analysis    

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考虑用户偏好的服务组合防策略拍卖机制

夏瑶,黄志球

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第22卷 第2期   页码 141-286 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.1900726

摘要： 服务组合是一种基于服务成本和服务质量（QoS）将现有原子服务组合为增值服务的有效方法。为满足用户的多样化需求，提供基于QoS的定价服务，提出一种基于用户偏好的服务组合拍卖机制，该机制具有防策略性，有利于根据用户偏好选择服务，动态确定服务价格。本文证明，所提出的拍卖机制达到了期望的性质，包括真实性和个体合理性。此外，提出一种拍卖算法来实现拍卖机制，并在真实数据基础上进行大量实验。结果表明，所提出的拍卖机制不仅达到预期效果，而且帮助用户找到满意的服务组合方案。

关键词： 组合逆向拍卖；服务组合；用户偏好；防策略性；动态定价    

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Scenario analysis of water pollution control in the typical peri-urban river using a coupled hydrodynamic-water

Haifeng JIA, Shuo WANG, Mingjie WEI, Yansong ZHANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2011年 第5卷 第2期   页码 255-265 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0279-x

摘要： The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth. In the study, a typical peri-urban river, Nansha River, was selected as a case study to discuss the scheme of peri-urban river rehabilitation. Located in the north part of the Beijing central region, the Nansha River watershed has been designated as an ecologically friendly garden-style area with high-tech industry parks and upscale residential zones. However, the Nansha River is currently seriously contaminated by urban and rural pollutants from both nonpoint sources (NPS) and point sources (PS). In this study, the pollutant loads from point sources and nonpoint sources in the Nansha River watershed were first assessed. A coupled model, derived from the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program, was developed to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality in the Nansha River. According to the characteristics of the typical peri-urban river, three different PS and NPS control scenarios were designed and examined by modeling analyses. Based on the results of the scenario analysis, a river rehabilitation scheme was recommended for implementation.

关键词： peri-urban river     coupled hydrodynamic-water quality modeling     scenario analysis     river rehabilitation    

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China’s pre-2020 CO

Hailin WANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2019年 第13卷 第3期   页码 571-578 doi: 10.1007/s11708-019-0640-0

摘要： China achieved the reduction of CO intensity of GDP by 45% compared with 2005 at the end of 2017, realizing the commitment at 2009 Copenhagen Conference on emissions reduction 3 years ahead of time. In future implementation of the “13th Five-Year Plan (FYP),” with the decline of economic growth rate, decrease of energy consumption elasticity and optimization of energy structure, the CO intensity of GDP will still have the potential for decreasing before 2020. By applying KAYA Formula decomposition, this paper makes the historical statistics of the GDP energy intensity decrease and CO intensity of energy consumption since 2005, and simulates the decrease of CO intensity of GDP in 2020 and its influences on achieving National Determined Contribution (NDC) target in 2030 with scenario analysis. The results show that China’s CO intensity of GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by 52.9%–54.4% than the 2005 level, and will be 22.9%–25.4% lower than 2015. Therefore, it is likely to overfulfill the decrease of CO intensity of GDP by 18% proposed in the 13th FYP period. Furthermore, the emission reduction potentiality before 2020 will be conducive to the earlier realization of NDC objectives in 2030. China’s CO intensity of GDP in 2030 will fall by over 70% than that in 2005, and CO emissions peak will appear before 2030 as early as possible. To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, China needs to make better use of the carbon market, and guide the whole society with carbon price to reduce emissions effectively. At the same time, China should also study the synergy of policy package so as to achieve the target of emission reduction.

关键词： China’s National Determined Contribution     emission reduction potential     scenario analysis     CO2 emissions peak    

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Modeling and simulation of industrial water demand of Beijing municipality in China

Shouke WEI, Shafi Noor ISLAM, Alin LEI,

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2010年 第4卷 第1期   页码 91-101 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0007-6

摘要： Statistic and econometric regression models were established in this study to analyze and predict industrial water demand, water deficits, and their future uncertainty in Beijing—a Chinese city with a severe water stress problem. A forecasting model was selected based on a modeling evaluation by comparing predictions with observations. Four scenarios were designed to simulate and analyze the future uncertainty of industrial water demand and the water deficit of Beijing. The modeling results for industrial water demand suggested that Beijing industry would face a water deficit between 3.06 × 10 min 2008 and 2.77 × 10 m in 2015, though its industrial water demand would decrease from 6.31× 10 m to 4.84 × 10 m during this period of time. Results from simulated scenario illustrated that, due to the extreme water scarcity situation, industry in Beijing would still face a serious water deficit problem even with a very optimistic scenario for the future.

关键词： water scarcity     water demand     water deficit     modeling     industry     scenario     Beijing    

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Ranking of design scenarios of TMD for seismically excited structures using TOPSIS

Sadegh ETEDALI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第14卷 第6期   页码 1372-1386 doi: 10.1007/s11709-020-0671-y

摘要： In this paper, design scenarios of a tuned mass damper (TMD) for seismically excited structures are ranked. Accordingly, 10 design scenarios in two cases, namely unconstrained and constrained for the maximum TMD, are considered in this study. A free search of the TMD parameters is performed using a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for optimum tuning of TMD parameters. Furthermore, nine criteria are adopted with respect to functional, operational, and economic views. A technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is utilized for ranking the adopted design scenarios of TMD. Numerical studies are conducted on a 10-story building equipped with TMD. Simulation results indicate that the minimization of the maximum story displacement is the optimum design scenario of TMD for the seismic-excited structure in the unconstrained case for the maximum TMD stroke. Furthermore, H of the displacement vector of the structure exhibited optimum ranking among the adopted design scenarios in the constrained case for the maximum TMD stroke. The findings of this study can be useful and important in the optimum design of TMD parameters with respect to functional, operational, and economic perspectives.

关键词： seismic-excited building     TMD     optimum design     PSO     design scenario     TOPSIS    

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Capacity estimation and preliminary strategy for reducing the release of dioxins in China

YU Gang, ZHANG Qing, HUANG Jun, CAI Zhenxiao, SUI Qian

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2007年 第1卷 第1期   页码 13-17 doi: 10.1007/s11783-007-0002-8

摘要： As a party of the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants, China must submit its national implementation plan (NIP) for this convention. The strategy and action plan for reducing the release of dioxins in China are the most important components of the NIP. Three problems are key points for developing such strategy and action plan what are the key sources for applying the best available technology/best environmental practice (BAT/BEP) to reduce the release of dioxins? How about the capacity for reducing the dioxins release from the key sources? Where are the areas of priority for applying BAT/BEP? This paper shows the efforts towards the solution of these problems. The list of key sources covering about half of the total dioxins release was determined considering four criteria. The capacity of key sources were estimated based on the difference between the emission factor corresponding to the actual situation in 2004 and that corresponding to the scenario that all key sources have been applied BAT/BEP to reduce the dioxins release. The priority analysis using the geographical information system (GIS) tool has revealed that eastern provinces should be of high priority in the future reduction activities of dioxins release in China.

关键词： GIS     difference     capacity     scenario     implementation    

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Impact of energy structure adjustment on air quality: a case study in Beijing, China

Bin ZHAO, Jiayu XU, Jiming HAO

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2011年 第5卷 第3期   页码 378-390 doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0357-8

摘要： Energy consumption is a major cause of air pollution in Beijing, and the adjustment of the energy structure is of strategic importance to the reduction of carbon intensity and the improvement of air quality. In this paper, we explored the future trend of energy structure adjustment in Beijing till 2020, designed five energy scenarios focusing on the fuel substitution in power plants and heating sectors, established emission inventories, and utilized the Mesoscale Modeling System Generation 5 (MM5) and the Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) to evaluate the impact of these measures on air quality. By implementing this systematic energy structure adjustment, the emissions of PM , PM , SO , NO , and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) will decrease distinctly by 34.0%, 53.2%, 78.3%, 47.0%, and 30.6% respectively in the most coal-intensive scenario of 2020 compared with 2005. Correspondingly, MM5-Models-3/CMAQ simulations indicate significant reduction in the concentrations of major pollutants, implying that energy structure adjustment can play an important role in improving Beijing’s air quality. By fuel substitution for power plants and heating boilers, PM , PM , SO , NO , and NMVOCs will be reduced further, but slightly by 1.7%, 4.5%, 11.4%, 13.5%, and 8.8% respectively in the least coal-intensive scenario. The air quality impacts of different scenarios in 2020 resemble each other, indicating that the potential of air quality improvement due to structure adjustment in power plants and heating sectors is limited. However, the CO emission is 10.0% lower in the least coal-intensive scenario than in the most coal-intensive one, contributing to Beijing’s ambition to build a low carbon city. Except for energy structure adjustment, it is necessary to take further measures to ensure the attainment of air quality standards.

关键词： Beijing     energy structure adjustment     air quality     Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ)     scenario    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Robust energy-efficient train speed profile optimization in a scenario-based position–time–speed network

期刊论文

Managing obsolescence of embedded hardware and software in secure and trusted systems

Zachary A. COLLIER, James H. LAMBERT

期刊论文

Scenario-based assessment and multi-objective optimization of urban development plan with carrying capacity

Yilei Lu, Yunqing Huang, Siyu Zeng, Can Wang

期刊论文

基于情景构建的中国COVID-19相关基本临床医疗资源需求评估

张婷, 王晴, 冷志伟, 杨媛, 杨津, 陈方媛, 贾萌萌, 张惺惺, 亓蔚然, 徐韵韶, 陈思雅, 戴佩希, 马礼兵, 冯录召, 杨维中

期刊论文

Current scenario and challenges of plastic pollution in Bangladesh: a focus on farmlands and terrestrial

期刊论文

Scenario analysis of the energy demand and CO

Jihong ZHANG, Jian ZHOU, Guangping HU, Tianhou ZHANG

期刊论文

Vanadium metabolism investigation using substance flow and scenario analysis

Fangfang ZHANG, Huiquan LI, Bo CHEN, Xue GUAN, Yi ZHANG

期刊论文

SWMM-based methodology for block-scale LID-BMPs planning based on site-scale multi-objective optimization

Te Xu, Haifeng Jia, Zheng Wang, Xuhui Mao, Changqing Xu

期刊论文

考虑用户偏好的服务组合防策略拍卖机制

夏瑶,黄志球

期刊论文

Scenario analysis of water pollution control in the typical peri-urban river using a coupled hydrodynamic-water

Haifeng JIA, Shuo WANG, Mingjie WEI, Yansong ZHANG

期刊论文

China’s pre-2020 CO

Hailin WANG

期刊论文

Modeling and simulation of industrial water demand of Beijing municipality in China

Shouke WEI, Shafi Noor ISLAM, Alin LEI,

期刊论文

Ranking of design scenarios of TMD for seismically excited structures using TOPSIS

Sadegh ETEDALI

期刊论文

Capacity estimation and preliminary strategy for reducing the release of dioxins in China

YU Gang, ZHANG Qing, HUANG Jun, CAI Zhenxiao, SUI Qian

期刊论文

Impact of energy structure adjustment on air quality: a case study in Beijing, China

Bin ZHAO, Jiayu XU, Jiming HAO

期刊论文